Climatic Impacts on Wheat Yields in Iran: A Two-Step Statistical Analysis across Diverse Climate Zones

Articles in Press
Authors
F. Mojtahedi 1
B. Zakizadeh Ghariehali 2
1 University School for Advanced Studies Pavia
2 University of Pavia
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of climatic variables and agricultural practices on wheat yield across different climate zones in Iran. Using a comprehensive dataset, we analyse how temperature, precipitation, soil type, and fertilizer usage influence wheat productivity. Our findings reveal significant yield variability across temperate, arid, and cold zones, with temperate regions showing the highest mean yields due to moderate temperatures and adequate precipitation. In contrast, arid and cold regions face challenges from extreme temperatures and insufficient rainfall. The study employs a two-step estimation process to isolate the effects of climatic variables from other factors, enhancing the accuracy of yield predictions. Our results underscore the critical role of temperature and precipitation in agricultural productivity, corroborating previous research while providing novel insights through methodological innovations. We propose several policy recommendations, including improving irrigation infrastructure, promoting climate-resilient wheat varieties, and developing comprehensive climate adaptation strategies. These policies aim to enhance agricultural resilience and sustainability in the face of climate change. Our research contributes to the growing body of literature on climate change and agriculture, offering a detailed understanding of how climatic factors affect wheat yields and informing more effective agricultural policies and practices.

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Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 16 September 2025