Climatic Impacts on Wheat Yields in Iran: A Two-Step Statistical Analysis across Diverse Climate Zones

Mojtahedi, Fatemeh; Zakizadeh Ghariehali, Behzad

Climatic Impacts on Wheat Yields in Iran: A Two-Step Statistical Analysis across Diverse Climate Zones

Document Type : Original Research

Authors

Fatemeh Mojtahedi ¹

Behzad Zakizadeh Ghariehali ²

¹ Department of Science, Technology and Society, University School for Advanced Studies Pavia, Italy.

² Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, University of Pavia, Italy.

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climatic variables and agricultural practices on wheat yield across different climate zones in Iran. Using a comprehensive dataset, we analysed how temperature, precipitation, soil type, and fertilizer usage influence wheat productivity. Our findings revealed significant yield variability across temperate, arid, and cold zones, with temperate regions showing the highest mean yields due to moderate temperatures and adequate precipitation. In contrast, arid and cold regions face challenges from extreme temperatures and insufficient rainfall. The study employs a two-step estimation process to isolate the effects of climatic variables from other factors, enhancing the accuracy of yield predictions. Our results underscored the critical role of temperature and precipitation in agricultural productivity, corroborating previous research while providing novel insights through methodological innovations. We propose several policy recommendations, including improving irrigation infrastructure, promoting climate-resilient wheat varieties, and developing comprehensive climate adaptation strategies. These policies aim to enhance agricultural resilience and sustainability in the face of climate change. Our research contributes to the growing body of literature on climate change and agriculture, offering a detailed understanding of how climatic factors affect wheat yields.

Keywords

Climate change

Climate risk

Role of temperature and precipitation in agriculture

Statistical modelling

Subjects

Agricultural Economics/Agriculture Production and Farm Management

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