Prioritization of Risk Management Strategies for Dairy Cattle Farms in Semi-Arid Regions Using BWM–EDAS

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Ali Mollaei
Ali FIROOZZARE
Nazanin Yousefian
Amirhossein Ameri
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Islamic Republic of Iran.
Abstract
Industrial dairy farms in semi-arid regions face multiple risks, including water scarcity, feed price volatility, animal diseases, and institutional constraints, which can undermine production efficiency and economic sustainability. This study identifies and prioritizes risk management strategies for industrial dairy farms in Mashhad County, northeastern Iran, using a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making framework. A total of 31 risk management strategies, grouped into five categories—operational management, animal health and biosecurity, financial resilience, environmental sustainability, and institutional adaptation—were assessed against three criteria: productivity improvement, long-term sustainability, and profitability. The fuzzy Best–Worst Method (F-BWM) was used to determine criterion weights, while the fuzzy Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution (fuzzy EDAS) was used to prioritize strategies based on judgments from 15 industrial dairy producers, veterinarians, and technical advisors. Criterion weights were relatively balanced (0.35, 0.34, and 0.31), indicating that no single criterion dominated the assessment. Professional consultancy ranked first, followed by implementation of a feed management program, monitoring feed quality and supply, diversification of genetic resources, and regular health monitoring. These findings underscore the importance of specialized expertise, feed management and quality control, genetic diversification, and preventive animal health management in strengthening farm-level risk management. In contrast, financial, environmental, and institutional strategies generally received lower priorities, which may reflect differences in perceived urgency, accessibility, and implementation constraints. Overall, strengthening farm-level technical and managerial capacity while improving the accessibility and credibility of supporting financial, environmental, and institutional mechanisms could enhance risk management and long-term sustainability in semi-arid dairy farming.
Keywords
Animal health monitoring
Decision-making under uncertainty
Feed management
Risk prioritization
Sustainability assessment
Subjects
1.      Abbasi, F., Allahviranloo, T., and Abbasbandy, S. (2016). A new attitude coupled with the basic fuzzy thinking to distance between two fuzzy numbers. Iranian Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 13(6): 21-39. https://doi.org/10.22111/ijfs.2016.2820.
2.      Abedi, R., Shahbaz Zadeh, M. (2025). Ranking the factors influencing the degradation of the Arasbaran forest through a multi-criteria decision-making approach using the Best–Worst Method (BWM). Iranian J Forest Range Prot Res., 22(2):309–330.
3.      Alizadeh, P., Mohammadi, H., Shahnoushi, N., Saghaian, S., and Pooya, A. (2020). Application of systems thinking approach in identifying the challenges of the beef value chain. AGRIS On-line Pap Econ Inform., 12(2):3–16.
4.      Amiri, M., Hashemi-Tabatabaei, M., Ghahremanloo, M., Keshavarz-Ghorabaee, M., Zavadskas, EK., and Antucheviciene, J. (2021). A novel model for multi-criteria assessment based on BWM and possibilistic chance-constrained programming. Comput Ind Eng., 156:107250.
5.      Azadnia, A. H., Geransayeh, M., Onofrei, G., and Ghadimi, P. (2021). A weighted fuzzy approach for green marketing risk assessment: Empirical evidence from dairy industry. Journal of Cleaner Production., 327, 129434. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129434.
6.      Bellingeri, A., Gallo, A., Liang, D., Masoero, F., & Cabrera, V. (2020). Development of a linear programming model for the optimal allocation of nutritional resources in a dairy herd. Journal of Dairy Science, 103(11): 10898-10916. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2020-18157.
7.      Brito, L.F., Bédère, N., Douhard, F., Oliveira, H.R., Arnal, M., Peñagaricano, F., Schinckel, A.P., Baes, C.F., and Miglior, F. (2021). Review: Genetic selection of high-yielding dairy cattle toward sustainable farming systems in a rapidly changing world. Animal., 15(1):100292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.animal.2021.100292.
8.      Brunelli, M., and Rezaei, J. (2019). A multiplicative best–worst method for multi-criteria decision making. Operations Research Letters., 47(1):12–15.
9.      Bushra, A., Rahman, M. A., and Islam, M. S. (2024). Biosecurity, health and disease management practices among dairy farms in five districts of Bangladesh. Preventive Veterinary Medicine., 224, 106110. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106110.
10.  Cabrera, V. E. (2018). Invited review: Helping dairy farmers to improve economic performance utilizing data-driving decision support tools. Animal, 12(1), 134–144. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1751731117001665.
11.  Çevrimli, M. B., Barıt, B., Varalan, A., Mat, B., Tekindal, M. A., & Günlü, A. (2025). Cattle enterprise score scale in animal life insurance in Turkey: a study of validity and reliability. Arquivo Brasileiro de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia, 77(6), e13485.
12.  Chand, S., Narayan, P., and Chaudhary, K.R. (2023). Sources of risks in livestock production and their management strategies in northern India. Indian Journal of Animal Sciences., 88(5):612–619. https://doi.org/10.56093/ijans.v88i5.80012.
13.  Ecer, F., and Pamucar, D. (2020). Sustainable supplier selection: a novel integrated fuzzy Best Worst Method (F-BWM) and fuzzy CoCoSo with Bonferroni (CoCoSo’B) multi-criteria model. Journal of Cleaner Production., 266:121981. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121981
14.  Ferreira, J. S., Baccili, C. C., Nemoto, B. S., Vieira, F.K., Sviercoski, L. M., Ienk, T., Pagno, J.T., and Gomes, V. (2024). Biosecurity practices in the dairy farms of southern Brazil. Frontiers in Veterinary Science., 11:1326688. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2024.1326688.
15.  Firoozzare, A., Ghazanfari, S., & Yousefian, N. (2023). Designing and analyzing the motivational risk profile of healthy food and agricultural products purchase. Journal of Cleaner Production, 432, 139693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139693.
16.  Giordano, J. O. (2019) Economic impact of reproductive performance in dairy herds. Clinical Theriogenology., 11(2):227–239.
17.  Guo, S., & Zhao, H. (2017). Fuzzy best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method and its applications. Knowledge-Based Systems, 121, 23–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2017.01.010.
18.  Harun, M.H., Shimelis, S., Andargie, B. Yousuf Abdi, M. Yusuf and Bekere, H. (2022). Assessment of biosecurity status in dairy cow farms. Bulletin of the National Research Centre., 46, 152. https://doi.org/10.1186/s42269-022-00836-7.
19.  Hashemi, S., Azizi, M. (2018). Investment risks and technological challenges in Iran’s dairy farming sector. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development., 49(2):101–118.
20.  Hayran, S., Gül, A. (2015). Risk perceptions and risk management strategies in dairy farming: A case study from Adana, Türkiye. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 3(12), 952–961. https://doi.org/10.24925/TURJAF.V3I12.952-961.583
21.  Heidary-Dahooie, J., Rafiee, M., Mohammadi, M., and Meidute-Kavaliauskienė, I. (2022). Proposing a new LSGDM framework based on BWM with hesitant fuzzy information for prioritizing blockchain adoption barriers in supply chain. Technology in Society, 71, 102146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2022.102146.
22.  Ilieva, Galina. (2018). Group Decision Analysis Algorithms with EDAS for Interval Fuzzy Sets. Cybernetics and Information Technologies., 18(2): 51-64. https://doi.org/10.2478/cait-2018-0027.
23.  Janowicz-Lomott, M., & Łyskawa, K. (2014). The new instruments of risk management in agriculture in the European Union. Procedia Economics and Finance, 9, 321–330. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00033-1.
24.  Jokhio, S., Abro, M. M. Q., and Alaali, L. (2016). Managing risk in livestock farming: the role of insurance companies. International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press., 7(2):64–72.
25.  Jubaedah, S., Hilmi, I., Ximenes, M. (2024). In-depth analysis of business risks in the cattle livestock industry: comprehensive literature review. Journal of Social Science., 5(4):955–961.
26.  Karami, A., and Barani, N. (2018). The effects of agricultural credit on livestock development in Hirmand County. Agricultural Economics Research., 10(2):1–14.
27.  Khade, S. B., Khillare, R. S., and Dastagiri, M. B. (2021). Global livestock development: policies and vision. Indian Journal of Animal Sciences., 91(9):770–779. https://doi.org/10.56093/ijans.v91i9.116470.
28.  Khan, W., Khan, S., Dhamija, A. Hasseb, M. and Ansari, S. A. (2023). Risk assessment in livestock supply chain using the MCDM method: a case of emerging economy. Environmental Science and Pollution Research., 30, 20688–20703. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23640-2.
29.  Kihal, A., Rodríguez-Prado, M., & Calsamiglia, S. (2023). A network meta-analysis on the efficacy of different mycotoxin binders to reduce aflatoxin M1 in milk after aflatoxin B1 challenge in dairy cows. Journal of Dairy Science, 106(8), 5379–5387. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2022-23028.
30.  Kołoszycz, E., Wilczyński, A., Menghi, A., Serena Soffiantini, C., and Klopčič, M. (2024). Searching for Dairy Farm Resilience with the R4D Project: Innovation Needs to Be Sustainable, Sustainability., 16(9): 1-20.
31.  Krisciukaitiene, I., & Bathaei, A. (2025). Developing a tailored sustainable supply chain framework for dairy SMEs in Lithuania using Best-Worst Method. Transformations and Sustainability, 1(1), 43-62. https://doi.org/10.63775/sv982x31.
32.  Krpálková, L., Cabrera, V. E., Kvapilík, J., and Burdych, J. (2020). Evaluating the economic profit of reproductive performance in dairy herds. Czech Journal Animal Science., 65(4).
33.  Kumar, R., and Singh, V. (2021). Global trends in dairy consumption and implications for food security. Food Policy., 103:102081. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102081
34.  Laibuni, N., and Kirui, L. (2018). Transforming livestock production through systems thinking approach: the case of West Pokot and Narok counties. In: 2018 Conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, Vancouver, Canada, 28 July–2 August 2018, paper no. 276020.
35.  Lakhani, M. O., Tauseef, S., and Chattha, W. A. (2023). Assessing the financial sustainability of a rural livestock practice: a case of Pakistan. Agricultural Finance Review., 83(2):286–298.
36.  Lebacq, T., Baret, P. V., & Stilmant, D. (2013). Sustainability indicators for livestock farming: A review. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 33, 311–327. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-012-0121-x.
37.  Lima-Campêlo, V. R., Paradis, M.-E., Arango-Sabogal, J. C., Beauregard, N., Roy, J.-P., Racicot, M., Aenishaenslin, C., & Dufour, S. (2024). Biosecurity adoption in Québec dairy farms: Results from a risk assessment questionnaire analyzed using conventional and unsupervised artificial intelligence methods. Journal of Dairy Science, 107(8), 6000–6014. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2023-24256.
38.  Maleki, S., and Pazhnegi, E. (2024). Evaluation of new urbanism principles using EDAS and BWM models in Ahvaz city. Geography and Human Relationships., 7(2):353–367. https://doi.org/10.22034/gahr.2024.460431.2153.
39.  McKendree, MGS., Tonsor, G. T., and Schulz, L. L. (2021). Management of multiple sources of risk in livestock production. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics., 53(1):75–93. https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2020.31.
40.  Mi, X., Liao, H. (2019). An integrated approach to multiple criteria decision making based on the average solution and normalized weights of criteria deduced by the hesitant fuzzy best–worst method. Computers & Industrial Engineering., 133:83–94.
41.  Mirzaie, K., Mowlaei, S., Arsevska, E., Ahmadi, B. V., Ambrosini, F., Rosso, F., and Chevanne, E. (2023). Analysis of livestock mobility and implications for the risk of foot-and-mouth disease virus spread in Iran. Ruminants., 3(4):299–323. https://doi.org/10.3390/ruminants3040027.
42.  Moktadir, M.A., Sarker, M.R., Sharif, T., and Abedin, M. (2026). A decision support model to investigate the pandemic recovery challenges and strategies in the leather supply chain. Annals of Operations Research. 359: 283–362. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-023-05708-5
43.  Mollaei, A., Firoozzare, A., and Yousefian, N. (2026). Operational Risk Management in Industrial Dairy Farms: An FMEA-Based Approach. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 57(2): 311–328. https://doi.org/10.22059/ijaedr.2026.410517.669421.
44.  Moradi, S., Javanbakht, O., and Khalilvandi Behroozyar, H. (2021). Evaluation of profit risk in Iran cattle fattening units: Value at Risk approach. Journal of Agricultural Economics & Development., 35(1): 47–62.
45.  Nouran, M. R., Elstohy, R., & Hanna, W. K. (2021). A proposed method for multi-criteria group decision making: An application to site selection. Applied Artificial Intelligence, 35(7), 505–519. https://doi.org/10.1080/08839514.2021.1901031.
46.  Pawlak, K., and Kołodziejczak, M. (2019). The role of agriculture in ensuring food security in developing countries: considerations in the context of the problem of sustainable food production. Sustainability., 12(13):5488. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12135488.
47.  Rahmati, E., Mohammadi, H., and Karbasi, A. (2022). Investment priorities in the livestock and poultry agribusiness value chains. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology., 24(6):1281–1296.
48.  Ramírez-Gómez, C. J., García-Cuervo, A., and Rodriguez-Espinosa, H. (2025). The adoption of sustainable practices in livestock production systems in tropical Andean páramos. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems., 8:1461713. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2024.1461713.
49.  Rehman, U. U. (2025). Evaluation and assessment of clean energy technologies: a bipolar fuzzy BWM–EDAS method for sustainable solution. Renew Energy 254:123592. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2025.123592.
50.  Riahi, V., and Seyyadati, S. (2022). Risk management of livestock activity in rural areas of Golpayegan County. Econ Geogr Res 3(7):1–19.
51.  Ries, A., Heuwieser, W., Huth, L., Krömker, V., Paduch, J-H., Zoche-Golob, V., Haimerl, P., Krampe, M., and Merle, R. (2022). Impact of veterinary herd health management on German dairy farms performance. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 9, 841405. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2022.841405.
52.  Schitea, D., et al. (2023). A state-of-the-art survey of evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS): Developments and applications. Expert Systems with Applications, 221, 119724. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2023.119724.
53.  Serin, H., Cengiz, B. N., & Günlü, A. (2025). A bibliometric analysis on sustainability in dairy farming. Veterinary Sciences and Practices, 20(1): 40–49. https://doi.org/10.17094/vetsci.1644630.
54.  Sharafi, K., Kiani, A., Khalid Omer, A., Parnoon, K., & Massahi, T. (2024). Importance of rigorous and ongoing monitoring of animal feed quality and storage conditions to mitigate aflatoxin M1 contamination in dairy products in Iran: A health policy brief. Journal of Health Reports and Technology, 10(2), e146654. https://doi.org/10.5812/jhrt-146654.
55.  Shokoohi, Z., Chizari, A. H., & Asgari, M. (2019). Investigating bargaining power of farmers and processors in Iran’s dairy market. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 51(1), 126–141. https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2018.26.
56.  Smith, J, Lee, K. Thompson, R. (2019). Challenges in modern dairy farming: managing biological risks. Animal Science Journal., 90(4):581–593. https://doi.org/10.1111/asj.13112.
57.  Streimikis, J., Bathaei, A., and Štreimikienė, D. (2024). Sustainability assessment of the agriculture sector using best–worst method: case study of Baltic states. Sustainable Development., 32(5):5611–5626.
58.  Vanvanhossou, S. F., Dossa, L. H., & König, S. (2020). Sustainable Management of Animal Genetic Resources to Improve Low-Input Livestock Production: Insights into Local Beninese Cattle Populations. Sustainability, 13(17), 9874. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179874.
59.  Zanon, T., Alrhmoun, M., and Gauly, M. (2024). Assessing the impact of biosecurity practices and animal welfare in small-scale mountain dairy farming. Scientific Reports., 14, 14984. https://doi.org/ 10.1038/s41598-024-63841-y.
60.  Zeng, S., Chen, W., Gu, J., and Zhang, E. (2023). An integrated EDAS model for Fermatean fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making and its application in green supplier selection. Systems., 11(3):162. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11030162.
Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 05 September 2026