Global beef production trends and projections: An ARIMA-based analysis

Uzundumlu, Ahmet Semih; Özdemir, Veysel Fatih; Ağsu, Kevser

Global beef production trends and projections: An ARIMA-based analysis

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu ¹

Veysel Fatih Özdemir ²

Kevser Ağsu ¹

¹ Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Atatürk University, 25240, Erzurum, Türkiye.

² Department of Animal Science, College of Agriculture, Atatürk University, 25240, Erzurum, Türkiye.

Abstract

Accurately predicting the future trends of beef production is essential for production planning and food safety policy making. In this study we utilized 64 years of data from 1961 to 2024 to project global and leading-country beef production levels for the period 2025–2030, using ARIMA models applied to FAOSTAT data inside the SAS statistical framework. These results show that the leading beef-producing countries will continue to account for a substantial share of global production throughout the forecast period. During 2025–2030, the United States is projected to contribute 17.72% of global beef production, followed by Brazil (16.07%), China (10.75%), Argentina (4.55%), Australia (3.57%), and Mexico (3.28%). Compared with the average of the previous six years, the shares of the United States and Argentina are expected to decline slightly, whereas Brazil, China, Australia, and Mexico are projected to increase their shares. Although the remaining producing countries account for smaller individual shares, together they continue to make an important contribution to global beef production and supply. These projections suggest that the future growth of global beef production will increasingly depend on the performance of both the major producing countries and the broader group of emerging producers. This pattern is consistent with previous studies reporting a gradual shift in the distribution of global beef production over time.

Keywords

Beef production

Forecasting

Global market

Leading countries

2030 projections

Subjects

Agricultural Economics/Agriculture Production and Farm Management

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