System Dynamics of Exchange Rate and COVID-19 Shocks in Iran's Broiler Industry

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mona Ahmadian 1
Hamed Najafi Alamdarlo 1
Katayoon Shemshadi Yazdi 2
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran.
2 Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran.
Abstract
Iran's poultry industry plays a critical role in national food security but remains highly dependent on imported feed inputs. Exchange rate volatility, economic sanctions, and disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic has imposed significant pressures on production costs, profitability, and sectoral sustainability. This study employs a system dynamics approach, using time-series data obtained from the Iran Customs Administration, the World Bank, the Ministry of Agriculture-Jihad, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the Central Bank of Iran for the period 2018–2023, to analyze the combined effects of exchange rate shocks and the COVID-19 pandemic on Iran's broiler industry. Two policy scenarios were evaluated: a phased increase in the preferential exchange rate and its complete elimination, each under pre- and post-pandemic conditions. The simulation results indicate that exchange-rate depreciation, rising feed costs, and inflation were the principal drivers of increasing broiler meat prices. Under the dual-shock scenario combining the complete removal of the preferential exchange rate with COVID-19-related disruptions, broiler meat prices are projected to increase by approximately 2,107% from 2018 to 2026. The findings demonstrate that gradual subsidy reform, combined with targeted producer support, strategic feed reserves, and investment in domestic feed crop production, would substantially improve the resilience of Iran's broiler industry while mitigating the adverse effects of exchange-rate shocks and future external crises.
Keywords
Broiler Industry
COVID-19
Exchange Rate Volatility
System Dynamics
Subjects
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Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 15 August 2026