Shifting the Production Frontier: The Dominance of Irrigation Modernization over Crop Reallocation in Groundwater Conservation

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Research

Authors
Mahsa Bahrami Nasab 1
Ali FIROOZZARE 1
Arash Dourandish 2
Mohamood Sabouhi 1
Mohammad Ghorbani 3
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Islamic Republic of Iran.
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran.
3 Department of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran.
Abstract
Balancing agricultural productivity with groundwater conservation remains a critical challenge in water-stressed regions. The current study attempted to provide a quantitative framework to evaluate agricultural water conservation policies, shifting the focus from administrative mandates to technological advancement. Using a calibrated Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model, we evaluated groundwater management strategies in Iran’s Safiabad district. Three controlled scenarios were evaluated: progressive crop restrictions (5%-30%), low-pressure irrigation coupled with cropping pattern optimization, and irrigation modernization with fixed cropping patterns. The results reveal shifting the technological production frontier significantly outweighs managerial reallocations along the existing frontier. Under the assumptions of our calibrated PMP model and the specific conditions of the Safiabad case study, a decomposition of the policy gains suggests irrigation modernization accounts for approximately 93% of total productivity improvements—achieving a simultaneous +26.7% increase in profit and a 65.4% reduction in water use. Conversely, cropping pattern re-optimization contributed only about 7%, despite requiring a mean absolute adjustment of 17.84% across eight crops. This model-dependent 13:1 technology-to-management contribution ratio indicates that, in this context, relying solely on behavioral restrictions or cropping shifts may be insufficient for achieving substantial water conservation without economic losses. Based on these findings, sustained groundwater conservation while maintaining rural livelihoods would likely benefit from expanding production possibilities through targeted infrastructure investments, though further research is needed to test the generalizability of these results.
Keywords
Agricultural water policy
Iran
Policy decomposition
Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP)
Smallholder farming
Technology adoption
Water scarcity
Subjects
1. Abdelrahman, A., Xia, C., Jia, C. and Faisal, M. (2020). Investment profitability and economic efficiency of the drip irrigation system: Evidence from Egypt. Irrig. Drain., 69(4): 715-726.
2. Asadi, H., Baghani, J. and Rafati, M. (2023). Physical and economic productivity of irrigation water and profitability of some crop products in different irrigation systems in Alborz Province of Iran. Agric. Econ. Dev., 30(4): 53-72.
3. Askaraliev, B., Musabaeva, K., Koshmatov, B., Omurzakov, K. and Dzhakshylykova, Z. (2024). Development of modern irrigation systems for improving efficiency, reducing water consumption and increasing yields. Mach. Energ., 15(3): 47-59.
4. Bahrami Nasab, M., Firoozzare, A., Dourandish, A., Sabouhi, M. and Ghorbani, M. (2025). Group decision-making of agricultural stakeholders towards sustainable groundwater resources management: A case study in North Khorasan. J. Agric. Econ. Dev., 38(4): 443-460.
5. Bashiri, H. R., Mousavi, S. N. and Najafi, B. (2021). An analysis of the effects of the policies of water demand management in Marvdasht: An application of the positive mathematical programming (PMP). Iran. J. Agric. Econ. Dev. Res., 52(3): 441-455.
6. Binswanger, H. P. and Sillers, D. A. (1983). Risk aversion and credit constraints in farmers' decision-making: A reinterpretation. J. Dev. Stud., 20(1): 5-21.
7. Boser, A., Caylor, K., Larsen, A., Missik, J. E. C., Dorman, L. E., McLaughlin, D., Steele-Dunne, S., et al. (2024). Field-scale crop water consumption estimates reveal potential water savings in California agriculture. Nat. Commun., 15: 2366.
8. Chakraborti, R., Davis, K. F., DeFries, R., Rao, N. and Ghosh, S. (2023). Crop switching for water sustainability in India's food bowl yields co-benefits for food security and farmers' profits. Nat. Water, 1: 904-915.
9. De Janvry, A., Fafchamps, M. and Sadoulet, E. (1991). Peasant household behaviour with missing markets: Some paradoxes explained. Econ. J., 101(409): 1400-1417.
10. Dercon, S. (1996). Risk, crop choice, and savings: Evidence from Tanzania. Econ. Dev. Cult. Change, 44(3): 485-513.
11. FAO. (2011). Yield Response to Water. Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 33, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
12. Feder, G., Just, R. E. and Zilberman, D. (1985). Adoption of agricultural innovations in developing countries: A survey. Econ. Dev. Cult. Change, 33(2): 255-298.
13. Grafton, R. Q., Williams, J., Perry, C. J., Molle, F., Ringler, C., Steduto, P., Udall, B., et al. (2018). The paradox of irrigation efficiency. Science, 361(6404): 748-750.
14. Howitt, R. E. (1995). Positive mathematical programming. Am. J. Agric. Econ., 77(2): 329-342.
15. Howitt, R. E. (2005). Agricultural and Environmental Policy Models: Calibration, Estimation and Optimization. Unpublished Manuscript, University of California, Davis.
16. Judd, K. L. (1999). Numerical Methods in Economics. MIT Press, Cambridge.
17. Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2): 263-291.
18. Liu, M., Liang, F., Wang, G., Li, Q., Tian, Y. and Jia, H. (2022). Enhancement growth, water use efficiency and economic benefit for maize by drip irrigation in Northwest China. Research Square [Preprint].
19. Lundahl, M. (1987). 'Efficient but Poor' – Schultz's theory of traditional agriculture. J. Dev. Stud., 23(6): 108-129.
20. Mokadem, N., Redhaounia, B., Besser, H., Ayadi, Y., Khelifi, F., Hamad, A., Hamed, Y. and Bouri, S. (2018). Impact of climate change on groundwater and the extinction of ancient "Foggara" and springs systems in arid lands in North Africa: A case study in Gafsa basin. Euro-Mediterr. J. Environ. Integr., 3: 1.
21. Paris, Q. and Howitt, R. E. (1998). An analysis of ill-posed production problems using maximum entropy. Am. J. Agric. Econ., 80(1): 124-138.
22. Pfeiffer, L. and Lin, C. Y. C. (2014). Does efficient irrigation technology lead to reduced groundwater extraction? Empirical evidence. J. Environ. Econ. Manag., 67(2): 189-208.
23. Rahmani, S., Yazdani, S., Mahmoudi, A., Shokat Fadaei, M. and Souri, A. (2017). An investigation into the economic benefits and savings resulting from the pressurized irrigation system development in Ardabil Province. J. Hydrosci. Environ., 1(2): 1-11.
24. Regional Water Company of North Khorasan. (2021). Sima-ye Ab Esfarayen [Water Profile of Esfarayen]. Ministry of Energy, Iran (In Persian).
25. Richter, B. D., Ao, Y., Lamsal, G., Wei, D., Amaya, M., Marston, L. and Davis, K. F. (2023). Alleviating water scarcity by optimizing crop mixes. Nat. Water, 1(12): 1035-1047.
26. Rodríguez-Flores, J., Valero-Fandiño, J., Cole, S., Malek, K., Karimi, T., Zeff, H., Reed, P., Escriva-Bou, A. and Medellín-Azuara, J. (2021). Global sensitivity analysis of a coupled hydro-economic model and groundwater restriction assessment. Research Square [Preprint].
27. Sauer, J. and Mendoza Escalante, A. (2007). Farming in the Eastern Amazon – Poor but allocatively efficient. Proc. 47th Annu. Conf. Ger. Assoc. Agric. Econ., German Association of Agricultural Economists.
28. Schultz, T. W. (1964). Transforming Traditional Agriculture. Yale University Press, New Haven.
29. Simon, H. A. (1955). A behavioral model of rational choice. Q. J. Econ., 69(1): 99-118.
30. Water Quality Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences. (2024). Water Resources Status in Iran. Available at: https://cwqr-ier.tums.ac.ir/
Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 14 July 2026