A WITS-SMART Simulation of the Effects of Iran's Membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on the Agricultural Sector

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Research

Authors
Abolfazl Mahmoodi
Yadollah Azarinfar
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran.
Abstract
Despite the use of the SMART partial equilibrium model in similar studies, none of the studies conducted inside Iran have utilized the WITS-SMART model to simulate trade relations and other trading partner countries. While this study simulates the economic effects of Iran's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) using the WITS-SMART model with data from 2023.Two scenarios with different levels of tariff reduction (a 25% and 50% reduction) were examined. The results show that reducing tariffs will increase imports of agricultural products to Iran, driven by trade creation and diversion effects. The total trade effect is estimated to be $125.9 million and $251.9 million in the two scenarios. India has the highest trade effect index, followed by Pakistan, China, and other member countries. The analysis by product category indicates that chapter 8 (edible fruits) have the highest potential for increased imports. The income effect is estimated to be $32.7 million and $75.5 million, with a projected increase in social welfare of $16.5 million and $28.6 million. In general, the effects of reducing import tariffs on agricultural products vary among the members of the SCO and for different products, necessitating targeted policymaking. Based on the results, it is recommended that import priorities, under conditions of tariff reduction, be in the order of India, Pakistan, China, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Uzbekistan. In terms of commodity, chapters 8, 12, and 9 are prioritized, followed by chapters 17, 21, 10, and other chapters.
Keywords
Agricultural trade
Partial equilibrium
Shanghai Cooperation Organization
Simulation
Tariff reduction
WITS-SMART model
Subjects
 
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Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 27 June 2026