Are Changes in Iran’s Market Share of Saffron Exports Aligned with the Global Demand Structure? An Analysis Using the Constant Market Share Model

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Research

Authors
Reyhaneh Allahverdi 1
Hamed Rafiee 1
Esmaeil Pishbahar 1
Saeed Yazdani 1
Mahdi Pendar 1
Abdolmajid Liaghat 2
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran.
2 Department of Irrigation & Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran.
Abstract
Saffron, as the world’s most valuable spice, holds strategic importance in non-oil trade and sustainable agricultural development. This study evaluates Iran’s alignment with global demand dynamics in saffron exports using the Constant Market Share model, which decomposes export changes into scale, competitiveness, and second-order effects. Based on ITC export data from 2013 to 2022, the analysis focuses on Iran’s major markets—UAE, Spain, China, and Afghanistan. The findings reveal that fluctuations in export volume were largely driven by competitiveness, especially in the volatile Chinese market. Additionally, the negative second-order effect in most years and destinations highlights Iran’s limited responsiveness to structural changes in global demand. These results emphasize the need to revise marketing strategies and enhance Iran’s saffron competitiveness through improved branding, product quality, and packaging.
Keywords
CMS
Demand Structure
Export
Iran
Market Share
Saffron
Subjects
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Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 22 June 2026