Assessing the Nexus between Weather Variables, CO₂ Emissions, Agricultural Inputs, and Food Production in Cameroon: Evidence from a NARDL Model

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Research

Authors
Veli Anıl Çakan
Amadou Merleau Nsangou Pofoura
Tolga Tipi
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Bursa Uludag University, Bursa, Turkey.
Abstract
This study examines the impact of weather variables, CO2 emissions, and agricultural inputs on food production in Cameroon, using annual time series data spanning from 1961 to 2023. The independent variables representing these factors are average maximum temperature and precipitation as weather variables, alongside agricultural land, and fertilizer usage as agricultural inputs. To assess the long- and short-run asymmetrical effects of these variables on food production, we employ the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The results confirm the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. Long-run estimates reveal that both positive and negative shocks to maximum temperature and precipitation adversely affect food production, with effects of -7.74% and -2.94%, respectively. In contrast, carbon emissions exhibit an asymmetric but positive long-run relationship with food production. Positive and negative shocks to CO2 emissions have a positive impact of 0.87% and 0.44%, respectively. Furthermore, agricultural inputs do not show a statistically significant long-run effect. The findings underscore the need for climate-sensitive and food-oriented agricultural policies in Cameroon, emphasizing targeted input support, planned production systems, and climate-resilient adaptation strategies to enhance long-term food security.

Keywords

Subjects

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Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 16 May 2026