Mapping Agricultural Drought Hazard in Iran

Document Type : Original Research

Authors
Abdolraoof Shahozei 1
Peyman Mahmoudi 1
Seyed Mahdi Amir Jahanshahi 2
1 Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Planning, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Islamic Republic of Iran.
2 Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
Abstract
The primary objective of this study was to develop a spatially explicit Agricultural Drought Hazard (ADH) map for Iran by integrating precipitation and soil moisture data. For this purpose, two key datasets spanning 30 years (1987-2016) were utilized: Monthly precipitation from 63 synoptic stations (Iran’s Meteorological Organization) and gridded monthly soil moisture data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) with a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5°. These were transformed into the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), respectively. A core quantitative finding was the regionally distinct correlation between SPI and SSMI: the strongest positive correlations were observed in Iran’s expansive dry climates (southern and eastern halves), while significantly weaker correlations characterized the more humid northern and western halves. This indicates a more rapid and direct propagation of meteorological drought to agricultural drought in arid zones. These standardized indices were then integrated to construct Iran’s ADH map. This map quantitatively classifies the central, southern, and southeastern regions as experiencing ‘high’ and ‘very high’ agricultural drought hazard. These findings provide a critical, data-driven tool for national and regional policymakers, offering improved insights for targeted drought mitigation and water resource management.
Keywords
Drought mitigation
National policymakers
Precipitation
Soil moisture
Subjects
1.       Achite, M., Bazrafshan, O., Katipoğl, O. M. and Azhdari, Z. 2023. Evaluation of Hydro-Meteorological Drought Indices for Characterizing Historical Droughts in the Mediterranean Climate of Algeria.” Nat. Hazards,118: 427–453.
2.       Adnan, S. and Ullah, K. 2020. Development of Drought Hazard Index for Vulnerability Assessment in Pakistan. Nat. Hazards, 103: 2989–3010.
3.       Adnan, S., Ullah, K. and Gao, S. 2015. Characterization of Drought and Its Assessment over Sindh, Pakistan during 1951–2010. J. Meteorol. Res., 29: 837–857.
4.       Adnan, S., Ullah, K. and Shouting, G. 2016. Investigations into Precipitation and Drought Climatologies in South Central Asia with Special Focus on Pakistan over the Period 1951–2010. J. Clim., 29(16): 6019-6035.
5.       Adnan, S., Ullah, K., Gao, S., Khosa, A. H. and Wang, Z. 2017. Shifting of Agro-Climatic Zones, Their Drought Vulnerability, and Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Pakistan. Int. J. Climatol., 37: 529-543.
6.       Asakereh, H. 2011. Fundamentals of Statistical Climatology. Zanjan University Press, Zanjan, Iran. (in Persian)
7.       Asrari, E., Masoudi, M. and Hakimi, S. S. 2012. GIS overlay Analysis for Hazard Assessment of Drought in Iran Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).” J. Ecol. Environ., 35: 323–329.
8.       Avia, L. Q., Yulihastin, E., Izzaturrahim, M. H., Muharsyah, R., Satyawardhana H., Sofiati, I, Nurfindarti, E. and Gammamerdianti, S. 2023. The Spatial Distribution of a Comprehensive Drought Risk Index in Java, Indonesia.” Kuwait J. Sci., 50(4): 753-760.
9.       Berhail, S. and Katipoğlu. O. M. 2023. Comparison of the SPI and SPEI as Drought Assessment Tools in a Semi-Arid Region: Case of the Wadi Mekerra Basin (Northwest of Algeria).” Theor. Appl. Climatol., 154: 1373-1393.
10.    Bettahar, A. and Şener, Ş. 2022. “Analysis of Meteorological Drought Indices in the Wadi Righ Area (Southern Algeria). Sustain. Water Resour. Manag., 8: 152.
11.    Blauhut, V., Gudmundsson, L. and Stahl, K. 2015. Towards Pan-European Drought Risk Maps: Quantifying the Link between Drought Indices and Reported Drought Impacts. Environ. Res. Lett., 10: 14008.
12.    Byun, H. R. and Wilhite, D. A. 1999. Objective Quantification of Drought Severity and Duration. J. Clim., 12: 2747–2756.
13.    Cao, S., He, Y., Zhang, L., Chen, Y., Yang, W., Yao, S. and Sun, Q. 2021. Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Drought and Its Impact on Vegetation in the Vegetation Region of Northwest China. Ecol. Indic, 133: 108420.
14.    Chanda, K., Maity, R., Sharma, A. and Mehrotra, R. 2014. Spatio-Temporal Variation of Long-Term Drought Propensity through Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability Based Drought Management Index. Water. Resour. Res., 50: 7662–7676.
15.    Daneshvar, M. R. M., Bagherzadeh, A. and Khosravi, M. 2012. Assessment of Drought Hazard Impact on Wheat Cultivation Using Standardized Precipitation Index in Iran. Arab. J. Geosci., 6: 4463–4473.
16.    Das, P. K., Das, R., Das, D. K., Midya, S. K., Bandyopadhyay, S. and Raj, U. 2020. “Quantification of Agricultural Drought over Indian Region: A Multivariate Phenology-Based Approach. Nat. Hazards, 101: 225–274.
17.    De Martonne, M. 1909. Traité de Géographie Physique – Climat – Hydrographic – Relief du sol – Biogéographie. Li-Brairie Armand Colin., Paris.
18.    Erfurt, M., Glaser, R. and Blauhut, V. 2019. Changing Impacts and Societal Responses to Drought in Southwestern Germany Since 1800. Reg. Environ. Change, 19: 2311–2323.
19.    Fan, Y. and van den Dool, H. 2004. Climate Prediction Center Global Monthly Soil Moisture Data set at 0.5 Degree Resolution for 1948 to Present. J. Geophys. Res., 109(10): D10102.
20.    Faridatul, M. I. and Ahmed, B. 2020. Assessing Agricultural Vulnerability to Drought in a Heterogeneous Environment: A Remote Sensing-Based Approach. Remote. Sens., 12(20): 3363.
21.    Free Worlds Maps. 2021. Iran Physical Map. https://www.freeworldmaps.net/asia/iran/map.html
22.    Gautam, S., Samantaray, A., Babbar-Sebens, M. and Ramadas, M. 2023. Characterization and Propagation of Historical and Projected Droughts in the Umatilla River Basin, Oregon, USA. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 41: 247-262.
23.    Ghorbani, H., Vali, A. A. and Zarepour, H. 2019. Analysis of the Climatological Drought Trend Variations Using Mann-Kendall, Sen and Pettitt Tests in Isfahan Province. Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards, 6(2): 129-146. (in Persian)
24.    Hagenlocher, M., Meza, I., Anderson, C. C., Min, A., Renaud, F. G., Walz, Y., Siebert, S. and Sebesvari, Z. 2019. Drought Vulnerability and Risk Assessments: State of the Art, Persistent Gaps, and Research Agenda. Environ. Res. Lett., 14: 083002.
25.    Kao, S. C. and Govindaraj, R. S. 2010. A Copula-Based Joint Deficit Index for Droughts. J. Hydrol., 380(1–2): 121–134.
26.    Katiraie-Boroujerdy, P. S., Nasrollahi, N., Hsu, K. L. and Sorooshian, S. 2013. Evaluation of Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimation over Iran. J. Arid Environ., 97: 205-219.
27.    Kim, H., Park, J. Yoo, J. and Kim, T. -W 2015. Assessment of Drought Hazard, Vulnerability, and Risk: A Case Study for Administrative Districts in South Korea. J. Hydro-Environ. Res., 9(1): 28–35.
28.    Lin, W., Wen, C., Wen, Z. and Gang, H. 2015. Drought in Southwest China: A Review. Atmos. Ocean. Sci. Lett., 8: 339–344.
29.    Mahmoudi, P., Amir Jahanshahi, S., Daneshmand, N. and Rezaei, J. 2021. Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Mean and Frequency Variations of Dry Spells in Iran. Arab. J. Geosci., 14: 478.
30.    Mahmoudi, P., Hamidian Pour, M., Sanaei, M. and Daneshmand, N. 2019b. “Investigating the Trends of Drought Severity Changes in Iran. In: “Proceedings of International Conference on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation”, 11 June, Kharzmi University, Tehran, Iran.
31.    Mahmoudi, P., Maity, R., Amir Jahanshahi, S. M. and Chanda, K. 2022. Changing Spectral Patterns of Long-Term Drought Propensity in Iran through Reliability–Resilience–Vulnerability-Based Drought Management Index. Int. J. Climatol., 42(8): 4147–4163.
32.    Mahmoudi, P., Rigi, A. and Miri Kamak, M. 2019a. A Comparative Study of Precipitation-Based Drought Indices with the Aim of Selecting the Best Index for Drought Monitoring in Iran. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 137: 3123–3138.
33.    McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J. and Kleist, J. 1993. The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales. Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17–22 January 1993, Anaheim, CA, Boston, MA.
34.    Modarres, R. 2007. Streamflow Drought Time Series Forecasting. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 21(3): 223–233.
35.    Nasrollahi, M., Khosravi, H., Moghaddamnia, A. Malekian, A. and Shahid, S. 2018. Assessment of Drought Risk Index Using Drought Hazard and Vulnerability Indices. Arab. J. Geosci., 11: 606.
36.    Natarajan, N., Vasudevan, M., Raja, S. A., Mohanpradaap, K., Sneha, G. and Shanu, S. J. 2023. Assessment Methodology for Drought Severity and Vulnerability Using Precipitation-Based Indices for the Arid, Semi-Arid and Humid Districts of Tamil Nadu, India. Water Supply, 23(1): 54-79.
37.    Palmer, W. C. 1965. Meteorological Drought. Research Paper No. 45. US Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, Washington D C, PP. 1-58.
38.    Shahid, S. and Behrawan, H. 2008. Drought Risk Assessment in the Western Part of Bangladesh. Nat. Hazards, 46(3): 391–413.
39.    Thiessen, A. H. 1911. Precipitation Averages for Large Areas. Mon. Weather Rev., 39: 1082–1084.
40.    Vaghefi, S. A., Keykhai, M., Jahanbakhshi, F., Sheikholeslami, J., Ahmadi, A., Yong, H. and Abbaspour, K. C. 2019. The Future of Extreme Climate in Iran. Sci. Rep., 9: 1-11.
41.    van den Dool, H., Huang, J. and Fan, Y. 2003. Performance and Analysis of the Constructed Analogue Method Applied to US Soil Moisture Applied over 1981–2001. J. Geophys. Res. 108: 1–16.
42.    Vicente-Serrano, S., Beguería, S. and López-Moreno, J. L. 2010. A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J. Clim., 23(7): 1696-1718.
43.    Wilhite, D. A. 2005. Drought.” In: “Encyclopedia of World Climatology”, (Ed.): Oliver, J. E. Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series, Springer, Dordrecht.
44.    Yu, J., Lim, J. and Lee, K. S. 2018. Investigation of Drought-Vulnerable Regions in North Korea Using Remote Sensing and Cloud Computing Climate Data. Environ. Monit. Assess., 190: 126.
Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology
Volume 28, Issue 4
July and August 2026
Pages 857-877