Mapping Agricultural Drought Hazard in Iran

Articles in Press
Authors
A. Shahozei 1
P. Mahmoudi 1
S. M. Amir Jahanshahi 2
1 Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of geography and environmental planning, University of Sistan and Baluchestan
2 Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of Sistan and Baluchestan
Abstract
The primary objective of this study is to develop a spatially explicit Agricultural Drought Hazard (ADH) map for Iran by integrating precipitation and soil moisture data. For this, two key datasets spanning 30 years (1987-2016) were utilized: monthly precipitation from 63 synoptic stations (Iran’s Meteorological Organization) and gridded (0.5°x0.5°) monthly soil moisture from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). These were transformed into the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), respectively. A core quantitative finding is the regionally distinct correlation between SPI and SSMI: the strongest positive correlations were observed in Iran’s expansive dry climates (southern and eastern halves), while significantly weaker correlations characterized the more humid northern and western halves. This indicates a more rapid and direct propagation of meteorological drought to agricultural drought in arid zones. These standardized indices were then integrated to construct Iran’s ADH map. This map quantitatively classifies the central, southern, and southeastern regions as experiencing ‘high’ and ‘very high’ agricultural drought hazard. These findings provide a critical, data-driven tool for national and regional policymakers, offering improved insights for targeted drought mitigation and water resource management compared to single-indicator assessments, particularly crucial for Iran’s vulnerable agricultural sector.

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Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 16 September 2025