Asymmetric Transmission of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Value Added of Agricultural Sector Using NARDL Model and GAS Model

Document Type : Original Research

Authors
E. Vafaei 1
M. Pendar 2
A. Javaheri 2
1 The Center for Development Research and Foresight, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran.
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran.
10.22034/JAST.27.3.513
Abstract
Oil, as a primary source of energy, has a significant impact on promoting economic activities. Oil provides considerable part of the government's revenue sources. The price of oil has always fluctuated over the years due to various reasons including political, social, and economic developments in different countries. Since the price of oil affects different sectors of the economy, including agriculture, through the government budget and the revenue sources of the government, this study investigated the effect of OPEC oil price fluctuations on the value added of the agricultural sector from 1990 to 2019. The Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) Model estimated these fluctuations, while the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) method estimated the long-term relationships. In addition to OPEC oil price fluctuations, variables such as the consumer price index, employment in the agricultural sector, and the trade openness degree were examined in the model. The results showed a negative effect of OPEC oil price fluctuations on the agricultural sector's value added. Furthermore, the trade openness had a positive effect on the agricultural value added in the long term. Results indicate that oil income is one of the most important issues that decline agricultural sector's value added, and the government should control this negative relation to develop agriculture as a vital part of the economy.

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Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology
Volume 27, Issue 3
May and June 2025
Pages 513-528