Oil is one of the significant factors in promoting economic activities. Oil provides a considerable part of the government's revenue sources. The price of oil has always been fluctuating over the years for various reasons including political, social, and economic developments in countries. Since the price of oil affects different sectors of economy including the agricultural sector through the government budget and the revenue sources of the government, this study investigated the effect of positive and negative fluctuations in OPEC oil prices on the value added of the agricultural sector during 1990-2019. The new GAS method was used for estimating the OPEC oil price fluctuations and the NARDL method was used for estimating the long-term relationships between positive and negative OPEC oil price fluctuations on the value added of the agricultural sector. In addition to OPEC oil price fluctuations, other independent variables such as the consumer price index, employment in the agricultural sector, and the degree of trade openness were examined in the model. Based on the obtained results, the positive and negative fluctuations of OPEC oil prices in the long term had a negative effect on the value added of the agricultural sector. Furthermore, the degree of trade openness had a positive effect on the value added of the agricultural sector in a long term. results indicate that oil income is one of the most important issues that decline value added of agriculture sector and government should control this negative relation to develop agriculture as a vital sector of economic.

Keywords: Oil price fluctuations, Agricultural Sector, GAS model

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