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Showing 9 results for Delphi Technique


Volume 5, Issue 3 (10-2015)
Abstract

One of the most important aspects of presence of citizens in urban spaces, that enhances their vitality and their effective social roles, is “moving on foot”. Nowadays, in many urban spaces, motion of a large number of citizens, who like to walk here and there in the cities, is affected by various factors. Dissatisfaction of pedestrians due to the limitation of urban spaces has a relationship with the violation of their rights. Citizenship rights, is one of the issues to be considered in Islam and is highly encouraged in respecting human values. A citizen, is an official member of a city, state or country and because of that, there are rights and responsibilities for him/her that have been assigned in law. In fact, citizenship right is a combination of duties and responsibilities of citizens in relation to each other, to the local and to the national government. In Islam, the rights and responsibilities that are known as the citizens’ rights are indigenous with the laws and regulations that have been known and assigned as Islamic human rights. These rights that must be strongly respected by Muslims, include civil, human, social, political, cultural and judicial rights. By studying some samples of justice in the Holy Qur’an, one can notice that “justice” involves all the issues which related to human beings. Some of the meanings of justice in Qur›an which have connection with citizenship rights in Muslim community include: placing everything in their right places, proper and accurate application of everything, respect for individual rights and the prevention of injury and trespassing, saving and prevention extremes, equality with other people and prevention and prohibition of superiority. Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) also mentioned justice as a factor for protecting and defending human beings’ right. He emphasized justice as the main criterion for all individual, social, moral, material, physical, spiritual, political and non-political rights. In this article, citizenship right is discussed from the perspective of justice in Islam. Justice is an important factor in the formation of the Islamic city. City is a complex structure that in every moment is influenced by three factors, «body or the built form», «population» and «social relations». So, establishment of justice in Islamic city is the function of (1) establishment of justice in the physical framework of a city, (2)fairly citizens use of urban facilities, (3) establishment of justice regarding to the citizens’ cultural aspects and issues (4) establishment of justice in the behavior of citizens with the physical framework of the city. The balance of the city framework, justice in the rational provision and distribution of municipal facilities, with access to the city authorities, fighting against oppression, good placement of urban facilities and their proximity and accessibility are all the signs of justice in urban scale. But in small-scale there are principles that following them, shows the importance of respecting pedestrians› rights and social justice, such as respect for human worth and dignity, good proportionality between dimensions of space and the characteristics of mental and physical organism of the human body, making the relationship between nature and human, and respect for other people, “La zarar va La zerar rule in Islam”, individual privacy, creating visual beauty and many other issue of these kinds. This study sought to evaluate the impact of these factors in violation of the rights of pedestrians, in the study area (intersection of Jalal Ale Ahmad and Chamran Highway to Kargar-e-shomali Street and Fatemi Intersection) as one of the areas with high pedestrian traffic. The statistical population of this study are the pedestrians who use these paths (the study area) at different times of the day and night. Research methodology is analytical-explanatory and based on field study. So on the basis of pedestrians and authorities views that was found through the researchand the principles of justice in Islam in relation to citizenship rights, six sets of criteria for the analysis citizenship rights of pedestrianscan be defined: Continuity, short distances, beauty, security, safety and comfort.A hierarchical model which intends to determine and analyze the factors that affect the rights of pedestrians in the study area has been used as well as “Expert Choice” software to evaluate the model. The results were obtained for the measures, on the basis of priority including security, safety, short distances, comfort, continuity and beauty. This means that in the study area, security had the greater role on the rights of pedestrians, and beauty has the least importance than others. On the basis of the principles of justice in Islam in relation to rights of citizens and with the issues which obtained in technical studies and expert opinions, the criteria which can affect pedestrian rights were found. For analysis of data, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique, and for the importance of options, a questionnaire have been used. “Delphi Method” was also used to evaluate the importance of the criteria and sub criteria. AHP, according to its special features in the issues related to urban planning is a useful and desirable application. It is useful because it prepared a context for analysis and conversion of complex issues to a logical and simple hierarchy, thus planners can evaluate options with criteria and sub criteria. In addition, it also helps in analyzing the compatibility review in judgments. Given that most issues in urban planning and design can be studied through qualitative and quantitative indicators, the possibility of simultaneous use of both qualitative and quantitative criteria in AHP method made it a powerful tool for analyzing urban issues. Flexibility, ease of calculation and the possibility of final rankings also are other advantages of AHP method which can help in the investigation of Issues in urban planning. So, citizenship rights as a manifestation of the principle of justice in the Muslim community should be considered in Islamic cities. The results of the research show that urban management is the most important factor in relation with violation and defense of pedestrians’ rights. Other factors are: the way people behave in adjacent spaces, the behavior of the owners of vehicles and the behavior of other users at the urban spaces. Security is also the most important factor for pedestrians, the lack of it, is a type of violation of their rights. The current problematic situation of pedestrians’ rights is the result of years’ lack of planning and implementing the rights of individuals to neglect issues of implementation of the management system, but the planners and designers can enhance the present situation through a integrated comprehensive and coordinated planning. This program should be associated with all aspects of planning, design and management of the system. Thus, the crucial role of urban management in connection with the rights of pedestrians in designing new cities, in regularization of towns, in allocating of funds for the reconstruction and rehabilitation of urban road networks and the regulation of urban laws (like appropriate legislation and ordinances to bring about the changes in the culture of citizens who are either walking or riding in urban spaces), as the main tools for managing short and average trips within the city, and the most appropriate manner, must have the highest priority.

Volume 6, Issue 1 (7-2016)
Abstract

Neighborhoods and public buildings are required to comply with specific criteria from the perspective of passive defense to survive and to continue its activities in conditions of crisis. In order to achieve the criteria, the recognition of threats and the priority of local public buildings based on various items can be helpful. The priorities explain which the user is more sensitive, more vulnerable and in times of crisis can be useful. The aim of the research is the priorities of existing buildings in the neighborhood on the field of functional necessity, the application in crisis and the sensitivity of the enemy. In times of crisis, Cities and accommodation and activity centers as well as public buildings as centers of human and material capital are the target for the enemy and attack them causes great damage. Accordingly, the neighborhoods that form the cities and public buildings in there are always on top of the important purposes of attackers. So through this paper study the urban buildings in the neighborhood of three terms of the amount of applicability in crisis, the sensitivity of the enemy and the sphere of functional necessity. Delphi technique used in this study and the research population included all defense experts and architecture, of which 12 samples selected. In general, the concept and household of neighborhood can be defined as different aspects of social, psychological, mental, cognitive, architecture (physical) and politically. Regarding to the world literature, two words, township and neighborhood can translated as the concept of neighborhood. While included the populations of them, respectively, 2000 and 10000 and 15000 to 40000 people. The first word is residential neighborhood that has a distinct identity but the second word refers to an area that in addition to large size has a diverse career opportunities. In urban classification, neighborhood is the first category and then the region, district, city and beyond, the next field. This neighborhood has the necessary equipment, including schools, supermarkets and entertainment centers. Public buildings of neighborhood that used as the first area of urban buildings including banks, shopping centers, libraries, mosques and religious sites, indoor clubs, schools, small industrial sites, hospitals, clinics and laboratories, emergency centers, subway, bus terminals, car parks, restaurants, fire station, power station, gas station, water and security centers. The purpose of measuring the important urban centers whit this benchmark is to find places that have the most users at the time of the invasion of the city, also have more effects in comparison with other users. This priority known against those places that is not effective in crisis. Identification of such sites has the advantage of looking for lasting strategic locations and finding solutions to maintain the physic and performance of those sites. Also, identify the places that the enemy does not considered as important targets and remove them from the priority of places in order to secure. If the domain of passive defense extended by the presence of some vital services after enemy attack, then the activities and places that are essential will identify during the threats. Other places that are diagnosed unnecessary or less effective, have the potential to change the physic to new performance. Provided that the architectural design is flexible and meet the vital needs of the city. In this study, the Delphi technique performed for the Prioritization of public buildings in terms of passive defense in times of crisis. The first point in the Delphi panel is the way to choose its members so that usually invited 10 to 15 specialists is the best for participation in Delphi. Delphi panel members for this study selected for non-probable sampling and combination of purposive or judgmental and sequential methods of 12 patients. In this method, the panel members usually offer their opinions in numbers, then the average is calculated by agree and disagree panel members, subsequently this information notified to members to obtain new ideas. In the next step, each member offers new opinion or modifies his previous opinion based on information obtained from the previous stage. This process continues until an average number is stable enough. The questionnaire designed as for the proposed priorities. According to the results shown the average per any local user, calculate by priority on the amount of applicability of the crisis, the sensitivity of the enemy and the sphere of functional necessity. In this way, there is priority on the amount of applicability of the crisis, the sensitivity of the enemy and the sphere of functional necessity for every 10 local buildings. The result in neighborhood suggests that priority applications on the sensitivity of the enemy, the first priority attack in the enemy point of view according to the panel members are military statins, power stations, gas stations and water centers. Mosques and religious sites, clinics and health centers, subway, parking and fire stations are as second priority and the banks, shopping centers and nonprofit services, libraries, indoor clubs, schools, kindergarten and restaurants is considered worthless attack. The priority on the sphere of functional necessity, clinics and health centers, subway, fire stations, power stations, gas stations, water centers and military stations are necessary, parking is rather essential and restaurants, libraries, Mosques and religious sites, indoor clubs, schools and kindergarten are non-performance. Also in priority on necessity in crisis, banks are non-usable, parking, schools and kindergarten, indoor clubs, Mosques and religious sites and libraries have possibility of granting new performance (indirect use) and shopping centers and nonprofit services, clinics and health centers, subway, fire stations, power stations, gas stations, water centers and military stations are a direct function (Maintain existing performance). The results in the prioritization in public buildings in the neighborhood suggest that the use in the prioritization in public buildings the neighborhood includes 10 users and each user also contains one or two sub-user. The applications analyzed based on three priorities (the amount of applicability in crisis, the sensitivity of the enemy and the sphere of functional necessity). The priority applications on the sensitivity of the enemy, the first priority attack in the enemy point of view according to the panel members are military statins, power stations, gas stations and water centers. The priority on the sphere of functional necessity, clinics and health centers, subway, fire stations, power stations, gas stations, water centers and military stations are necessary. In priority on necessity in crisis, shopping centers and nonprofit services, clinics and health centers, subway, fire stations, power stations, gas stations, water centers and military stations are a direct function (Maintain existing performance). Designing complex subway station and mixing them with crisis management provides an opportunity to understand multi-functional of station spaces. This article seeks to reduce vulnerabilities in the analysis subway stations measures to be considered as temporary accommodation in an emergencies and provide a safe space research questions inclusive weather do you have ability to the performance is also, in addition to its roles as station for transport and cultural and commercial complex; in critical condition become to temporary housing? Or what factors effect on flexibility of architectural complex subway? We have very good station complex in our country. A station complex itself consists of several levels of services areas include entertainment and office. This type of sorting and spatial layout is designed based on the needs. But in this paper we discussed bout benefits of this wide space and advantages of all the facilities and equipment in emergencies. Developing countries, including Iran, in addition to being more prone to accidents and natural disasters than other communities, total human casualties and property damage in case of accident these communities are heavier. To prevent the occurrence, planning to rescue damaged area and temporary accommodation, all communities need new Disaster Management. In the present study we have tried through a multi-functional and flexible design, the central station with the highest integrity economic, social and environmental be prepared to deal with the sudden crises. Despite the unexpected event and the space subway stations is located in the basement created a good spaces for sheltering people affected.

Volume 6, Issue 1 (7-2016)
Abstract

Introduction and Literature Review: Reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions to alleviate the effects of global warming have become a worldwide necessity. This matter has significant importance in Iran, because Iran has the seventh ranking position of global greenhouse gas emissions and its rate of growth is above global average. Building construction sector is experiencing a fast-paced growth in developing countries, like Iran, due to growth of economy and rapid urbanization. A large number of buildings are being built for residential, commercial and office purposes every year. Built environments are responsible for about 40 percent of energy consumption in Iran and it is generally approved that the greatest portion of built environment is dedicated to residential use. Energy consumed in producing and processing building materials and in the processes of building a house, is usually calculated using embodied energy concept. Until recently, it was generally accepted that the energy used during the occupation of a building represented a much higher proportion than its embodied energy; thus, great efforts were put into reducing energy use in this phase. New and improved technologies have reduced the operational energy through a variety of solutions, including energy-efficient equipment and appliances, improved insulation levels, low energy lighting, heat recovery systems, the provision of solar hot water systems, photovoltaic panels for generation of electricity, and other renewable technologies. However, these measures often imply an increase in materials use and energy demand for their production, which explains the growing importance of other phases in the total life cycle. According to the global literature, embodied energy of a building accounts for one third to one fifth of the total life cycle energy consumption of a specific building. However as the global trend for the new developments moves toward the zero energy/carbon buildings, the importance of the embodied energy increases. In fact embodied energy is one of the leading parameters in assessing building’s environmental performance, because in building projects, vast amounts of building materials are needed which consume great amounts of embodied energy and thus have negative effect on environment. With this preamble, improving energy efficiency of the existing dwelling stock of urban regions will increasingly be part of achieving sustainable development in future. Although this aspect of achieving sustainable development has been the subject of many global practices in recent years and global literature is almost rich in the calculations and analysis of embodied energy and life cycle energy consumption, this matter has been neglected almost completely in Iran and those few studies conducted focusing on energy in urban planning and designing fields, are mainly concentrating on transportation sector. Thus the main goal of this study is analyzing the sustainability of urban residential sector with focusing on embodied energy consumption. Methodology: In this regard, residential sector in Shiraz Metropolitan has been divided into seven different dwelling types including central-yard houses, attached terrace houses (one story houses, two story and three story houses), apartments (which are buildings of four story and above), villas and declined houses. Gathering raw data in this study was challenging, considering the fact that house building in Iran is far from industrialized and prefabricated building is really limited. Unfortunately there is no data available on the average material consumption of different dwelling types in Iran and the only study similar to this was done focusing on building structures. Using this only available data, we built our data bank in Microsoft Office excel and then focused on computing average embodied energy via multiplying embodied energy of common building materials extracted from a report conducted in the University of Bath titled “Embodied Carbon: The Inventory of Carbon and Energy (ICE)” into average material consumption based on building structures. Another point we had to take into account was the unit of the available data; while embodied energy of materials were presented in gigajoules per square meter, average material consumptions of dwellings were presented in different units from square meters, to cubic meters, kilograms and blocks. So using density of materials we established a second data base with similar units. Normalizing this raw data through dividing average embodied energy of residential dwelling by dwelling area we calculated the capitation of embodied energy for each dwelling. Afterwards we prioritized embodied energyconsumption of dwelling types from lowest embodied energy capitation to the highest as follows: brick and wood structures with about 3 GJ/m^2 embodied energy, clay brick concrete structures, clay brick steel structures, brick concrete structures, brick and iron structures, and at last brick steel structures with about5.35 GJ/m^2 embodied energy Results: To be sure of the validity of these comparisons analysis of variances (ANOVA) and Post Hoc Tests (Least significant difference- LSD) have been applied to these data in IBM SPSS statistics 19, and the result has been positive. Then collected data were shifted from structure types to dwelling types and we found out that central-yard houses with 3.6 GJ/m^2 embodied energy per capita are the most energy efficient dwelling types. After this type in sequence lay one-story terrace houses (4.21GJ/m^2 ), apartments (4.26GJ/ m^2 ), two story terrace houses (4.67GJ/m^2 ), declined houses (4.81GJ/m^2 ), villas (4.84GJ/m^2 ), and three story terrace houses (5.21GJ/m^2 ). Discussion and Conclusion: This paper highlights the need to use location-specific data in the development of building assessment schemes and the issues related to the use of embodied energy assessment for the building sector. Absence of localized data base on building material consumption on the basis of dwelling type and lack of data on cradle to grave embodied carbon and energy of common building materials were the most important obstacles in this research. On the basis of international research, paint, bitumen, platevirgin, sheet Galvanized-virgin, steel, ceramics, primary glass, iron bars, lime, cement, and common brick are the most energy intensive materials. So on account of lack of localized data, we used international embodied energy of common building materials (cradle-to-gate) to calculate embodied energy of different dwelling types. Despite of major shortcomings in data base, noteworthy conclusions have been deducted from this work which are summarized as follows: traditional form of housing in Shiraz which is known as central yard houses in this paper with brick and wood structures (in which there is a yard in the center of the block and the residential parts are located at its periphery) are the most sustainable form of housing according to this research criteria and case study. This may owe its accomplishment to the low embodied energy of common materials used in this type of housing which we may call the most environmental friendly form of housing in Shiraz. Furthermore there is a substantial lack of data on embodied energy and carbon of materials in general, and in particular on the embodied energy and carbon of buildings to be able to do an entire evaluation of buildings in their life long period. So to do a complete research in building sector (life cycle assessment), including embodied energy, gray energy, operational energy, induced energy, Demolition/Recycling Energy, and retrofit energy are unavoidable.
F. Rasouli, H. Sadighi, S. Minaei,
Volume 11, Issue 1 (1-2009)
Abstract

The primary purpose of this research study was to determine the major factors affect-ing the implementation of national agricultural mechanization programs in Iran. The sec-ondary purpose of this study was to assess the agricultural mechanization level practiced by farmers. This project consisted of two phases. In the first phase of the study, a Delphi technique was used to gather experts' points of view on variables affecting agricultural mechanization implementation programs in Iran. The second phase of the study was de-signed to assess the agricultural mechanization level practiced by farmers growing sun-flower seeds. The Delphi technique investigation showed that the main constraints on farm mechanization were “small farm size” and “fragmentation of holdings”. The find-ings of the second phase of this research indicated that the mean agricultural mechaniza-tion level practiced on the sunflower producing farms was about 0.5 kW per ha of culti-vated land. However the amount of energy input varied between 0.0149 to 3.4973 kW. Multivariate linear regression of the study indicated that 46.9% (R2= 0.469) of the vari-ance in the level of agricultural mechanization practiced could be explained by variables such as income, total farming land, and land holdings under sunflower seed cultivation.

Volume 12, Issue 49 (10-2015)
Abstract

Delphi was the principle procedure used to conduct this study. In its most basic form, the Delphi consists of at least three different instruments which in the present study will be referred to as round one, round two and round three. Brooks (1972) stated that the number of rounds could either be predetermined by the researcher or continued until group consensus is reached. The primary purpose of this study was to identify strategies regarding commercialization of academicals research findings in dealing with agricultural food Industry. Seventy-Four faculty members of Agricultural Food Industry Departments employed at public universities were identified to serve as a panel of experts for this study.  However, 25 faculty members responded to our e-mailed questionnaires. From the review of literature, an open-ended questionnaire consisting of one question was developed for round one. This question was validated for content regarding its appropriateness to the objective of the study by a panel of faculty members in the Departments of Agricultural Extension and Education and Food Industry at Tarbiat Modares University. Seventeen strategies regarding commercialization of academic research findings in Agricultural Food Industry were collected from the panel of experts as the result of round one. Consensus was achieved for 15 of these statements in round three. The data in Table 3 shows the level of agreement of panel of experts in commercialization of academic research findings that more than (80%) of them reached consensus.  
F. Hosseini, H. Sadighi, S. A. Mortazavi, H. Farhadian,
Volume 21, Issue 7 (12-2019)
Abstract

Electronic commerce (E-commerce) is a contemporary concept with huge potential that is fundamentally changing how business is done. This paper describes robust E-commerce strategies for trading agricultural goods and services. The purpose of this study was to enhance the efficiency of E-commerce in the export of agricultural commodities. Since the SWOT method is a key tool used by businesses to formulate strategic plans, this study conducted a SWOT analysis of E‐commerce to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats faced by E‐commerce in current scenarios. A random sampling method was used to select the statistical population, which was composed of 96 experts from the Ministry of Agriculture. Seventy-five questionnaires were distributed to the experts (N= 75) using Morgan and Krejsi's table, of which 59 questionnaires were filled (n= 59). The questionnaire consisted of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to E-commerce development and it was prepared using the Delphi technique. The important results of SWOT analysis constituted a framework to help planners and managers realize their goals and enhance the export of agricultural commodities. The resulting SWOT matrix analysis was located in the area of WO (conservative strategy). Accordingly, it is recommended that for proper exploitation of environmental opportunities, organizational weaknesses should be taken into account. Some important strategies suggested based on this study are enforcing laws and providing effective incentives to reduce production costs relative to global prices as well as creating innovation in the export process using E-commerce.
 

Volume 25, Issue 2 (7-2021)
Abstract

The purpose of this article is to determine and rank the dimensions and indicators affecting the strategic human resources development and provide a model for the effective implementation of the strategic development of human resources in the government research organizations. In terms of purpose and method, this study is developmental and a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, respectively. We first collected information from the electronic resources of strategic human resource development by a content analysis method and then, using Delphi technique and the opinion of elites, calculated the dimensions and indicators of strategic human. In the next step, the dimensions and indicators obtained in the form of a model were analyzed using a second-order confirmatory factor analysis in the Lisrel software and the structure of the model was confirmed according to the analyzes. The results also show that the factors affecting the strategic development of human resources are divided into four general categories: structural, policy-making, cultural, and environmental factors, among which the policy-making one has the greatest impact on the strategic development of human resources.
J. Pariab, E. Abbasi, H. Sadighi, Sh. Choobchian, H. Hosseinzadeh Sahafi,
Volume 26, Issue 1 (1-2024)
Abstract

Fisheries tourism is one of the types of tourism that has not received much attention in Iran, despite its good status. The benefits of the tourism industry with the high potential of the fisheries and fishing industry can provide an ideal option to connect the two industries in order to leave the difficult conditions of the fishery areas and move toward development. The first step in planning for fisheries tourism development is to accurately identify the potentials and fisheries' attractions to absorb tourists. Thus, the present study aimed to identify the tourists’ attractions of fisheries using a qualitative methodology with an exploratory approach. This research was applied in terms of purpose, and is descriptive and survey in terms of nature and method. The statistical population of this study was relevant subject experts. Using the purposeful snowball sampling method, 23 experts were selected to determine the panel of the experts based on their subject expertise, experiences, and the theoretical adequacy principle. In three rounds, the attractiveness and attractive fisheries activities for tourism were identified using the Delphi technique. In the first round of Delphi, 30 attractions and attractive activities for fisheries tourism were introduced by experts. After the removal of the less important items in the second and third round of Delphi, finally, the consensus was reached about 12 attractions of fisheries tourism, in three categories of fishing and fishery, fisheries industries, and coastal aquaculture.

Volume 31, Issue 1 (9-2024)
Abstract

Changes in banking business model, entering new markets, switching traditional and classical systems' nature to electronic banking and entering digital banking, as well as the emergence of FinTechs and startups in the banking industry on the one hand and the lack of a comprehensive view and inclusive in the field of risk identification and control, on the other hand, increased the concern and risk of banks. What is certain is that the process and manner of change do not indicate a secure future.  Therefore, the present study aims to provide a comprehensive classification of types of risks in the Iranian banking industry. The statistical sample includes the number of thirty selected experts and risk experts in the banking industry who selected by sampling method based on systematic elimination. Twenty final indicators determined for risk classification in the banking industry from among 68 extractive components obtained from literature review, obtained by repeating the Delphi method three times in 1399-1400 period. The results showed that the proposed classification of banking risk includes financial risk, operational risk, economic risk, socio-political risk, compliance risk, and knowledge and technology risk. The validating results through the Delphi technique showed that Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the third round was equal to 0.899 and indicated that all indicators were significant and valid and there was a high level of consensus among experts.

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